怎样从伊拉克脱身（3/3）

THE AL-QAEDA FACTOR基地组织因素

Advocates of a phased withdrawal from Iraq still must overcome the Bush Administration's most vociferous argument against it: that Americans must stay in Iraq to prevent al-Qaeda from establishing a safe haven there. As support from key Republicans has withered, the Pentagon has cranked up the al-Qaeda rhetoric. On July 17, the Administration released the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which said "Al-Qaeda will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qaeda in Iraq" to plot attacks against the U.S. homeland. Bush has turned up the volume, mentioning al-Qaeda 27 times in a speech last month. "Leaving Iraq now," Bush said recently, would mean we'd "allow the terrorists to establish a safe haven in Iraq to replace the one they lost in Afghanistan ... People aren't just going to be content with driving America out of Iraq. Al-Qaeda wants to hurt us here." 分阶段撤军的支持者们仍然需要驳斥布什政府最强硬的反对理由：美国人必须留在伊拉克来防止基地组织把那里当成藏身之处。随着共和党关键人物支持的流失，国防部加紧了这个论调的宣传。七月十七号，相关部门公布了最新的《国家情报评估》，声称“基地组织可能会利用在伊拉克的联络网和势力”来策划对美国本土的攻击。布什也开始高调，在上月的一个讲话中27次提到了基地组织。“现在就离开伊拉克，”他最近说，会意味着“放纵恐怖分子在伊拉克建立一个避风港来代替他们在阿富汗失去的那个。。。他们不仅仅满足于把美国人赶出伊拉克，基地组织想要伤害我们于美国本土。”

Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the U.S. military estimates that al-Qaeda in Iraq — a group thought to number several thousand — accounts for only about 15% of the attacks in Iraq. (Other Sunni groups account for 70%, with Shi'ite militias responsible for the remaining 15%.) But, Cordesman says, those attacks are the most deadly and "probably do the most damage in pushing Iraq toward civil war." At the moment, al-Qaeda in Iraq is valuable to Osama bin Laden and his top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, even though the links between the Qaeda leaders and the jihadi shock troops in Iraq are tenuous. The violence perpetrated by al-Qaeda in Iraq helps the organization raise money and draw new recruits. The declassified NIE summary says al-Qaeda in Iraq helps al-Qaeda "energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources and recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for homeland attacks." Anthony Cordesman，战略与国际问题研究中心的一位安全问题分析专家，说美国军方估计基地组织在伊拉克大约有几千人，发动的攻击只占全伊拉克的15%。（其他逊尼派组织占了70%，什叶派武装占了其余15%。）但是，他指出，那些攻击是杀伤力最大的，而且“可能是会把伊拉克推向内战深渊的罪魁祸首。” 眼下，在伊拉克的基地组织对本拉登和他的首席代理人Ayman al-Zawahiri来说非常重要，即使基地的首领和伊拉克圣战游击队之间的联系很薄弱。伊拉克基地组织发动的暴力攻击帮助这个组织募集到资金和招募人员。解密的《国家情报评估》总结指出在伊拉克的分部帮助基地组织“刺激扩大极端逊尼派团体，募集财力人力以及训练行动人员，包括为攻击美国作准备。”

But it's also true that al-Qaeda in Iraq is on the run. On Wednesday, the U.S. announced the capture of the highest-ranking commander of the group in Iraq. When the U.S. leaves, many Iraqis say, they can deal with the terrorists and their patrons more harshly. The Anbar Salvation Council has been aggressively targeting al-Qaeda in that province, denying it safe haven in places it once controlled with an iron fist. The Administration has boasted in recent weeks that the Sunnis in Anbar are attacking elements of al-Qaeda. So why would that end if the U.S. withdrew? "If we withdraw from Iraq, a lot of the tensions we see today are going to be directed against al-Qaeda as well as against every other faction," says Cordesman. "So it's not going to be some sort of easy sanctuary for al-Qaeda." 但是伊拉克的基地组织在忙着逃命也是事实。周三，美国宣布抓到了这个组织最高头领。许多伊拉克人认为，一旦美国人离开，他们就能更加严厉地对付恐怖分子和他们的支持者。安巴尔救世委员会一直在猛烈地追击本省的基地组织，使这个一度处于基地组织高压控制下的地方不再是他们的避难所。在最近几周政府夸口说安巴尔省的逊尼派在追击基地组织成员。那么有什么理由认为美国的撤退会终止这种追击呢？“如果我们撤离伊拉克，许多矛头将转而对准基地组织或其它派系，”Cordesman说。“所以这不会意味着基地组织能松一口气。”

But neither will the broader jihadist threat in Iraq or elsewhere vanish when we leave. Most plans for a reduced U.S. mission in Iraq — including the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, headed by James Baker III and Lee Hamilton — call for retaining a small counterterrorism force there. "No one is going to complain about going after an al-Qaeda target," says Anthony Zinni, former head of U.S. Central Command, who advocates a gradual disengagement from the sectarian conflict. Even so, the U.S. needs to be realistic about what 75,000 U.S. troops can achieve. "I want to blow up al-Qaeda wherever we can, but I don't think we're going to have any particular capacity to do that if we cut our troop strength in half and pull back into the desert," says Stephen Biddle of the Council on Foreign Relations. Cordesman, who does not favor an immediate withdrawal, notes that all the worry about al-Qaeda in Iraq ignores the much larger threat that bin Laden's ideas already pose to U.S. interests. "Al-Qaeda does not have a center," he says. "Al-Qaeda operates in Pakistan; al-Qaeda operates in Afghanistan. It has distributed networks and affiliates in Algeria. It has ties, awkward as they are, to Hamas. We are talking about a network, which is international in character, which will be a major threat whether we win or lose in Iraq." 但这也不意味着我们离开后在伊拉克和其它地方的圣战分子的威胁会消失。大部分对于美国撤军后任务的计划，包括以James Baker III和Lee Hamilton为首的伊拉克研究小组提出的建议在内，都呼吁保留部分反恐力量。“没人会对追击基地组织有意见，”前美国中央司令部总司令Anthony Zinni说。他倡议逐步远离教派冲突。即使如此，我们也要现实些对待七万五千名美国兵能做到的。“不管在什么地方我都想要打击基地组织，但是我不认为在削减了一半兵力并撤回到沙漠中后，我们还能有多少余力去做这件事。” 外交关系理事会的Stephen Biddle说。而不赞成立刻撤军的Cordesman注意到，所有对于伊拉克基地组织的担忧都忽略了一个已经构成的对美国利益大得多的威胁，即本拉登的主张。“基地组织并没有一个核心，”他说。“他们在巴基斯坦有活动，在阿富汗也有。他们在阿尔及利亚也有分布网点和同伙。尽管不是很紧密，他们还与哈马斯集团有联系。我们在对付的是一个国际化的网络系统，不管我们在伊拉克的输赢这都将成为我们的主要威胁。”

REDEFINING SUCCESS 重新定义成功的概念 As exhausting as the enterprise in Iraq has been for Americans, it remains merely the most urgent of a wide range of challenges to global stability. While it can only be glimpsed, an end to the debacle in Iraq does not mean an end to America's responsibilities in the world. With the U.S. drawing down, Iraq would diminish as a focal point of anti-Americanism. With most U.S. troops exiting the region, Washington would have more leverage with Iran, which has continued its march toward nuclear weapons while the U.S. has been bogged down in Iraq. And most important of all, the U.S. would regain the military, economic and intellectual bandwidth it once employed to advance its interests elsewhere and start rebuilding its reputation overseas. 尽管在伊拉克的努力让美国人精疲力尽，它仍然只不过是威胁全球稳定的一系列挑战中最紧迫的那个。哪怕只是管中窥豹，在伊拉克的溃败并不意味着美国在全球责任的终结。随着美国的淡出，伊拉克将逐渐从反美的风口浪尖上退下来。在大部队撤离后，华府将有更多的精力来对付伊朗，后者趁美国在伊拉克脱不开身的机会一直在朝核武迈进。最重要的是，美国将重新获得一度用来推广美国全球利益的军事、经济和人才优势，开始重建其海外名声。

But that will require the kind of diplomatic effort that this Administration has been reluctant to pursue. The most obvious place to start is Iraq, where U.S. diplomacy will still be needed to bring about a sustainable accord between Sunnis and Shi'ites, should they ever tire of fighting. A State Department official says what is needed is a greater willingness to engage hard-line forces on both sides of the sectarian divide as well as the Iranians and Syrians, all of whom will have a say in Iraq's future. Resistance to this idea comes from the White House, a U.S. diplomat says. "There is a reality on the ground in Iraq that we never really wanted to confront too much, but there are real politics in Iraq," says the official. "If we can tap into that and start working and engaging with Iraqis in a different way, we might actually become part of what emerges as a solution." 但是那需要动用本届政府一直不情愿使用的外交斡旋。最明显的开端就是伊拉克，有朝一日逊尼派和什叶派厌倦了互相掐架后，仍然需要美国的外交努力来让他们达成长久的和平。国务院一位官员认为，我们需要更多容许各方强硬派人物介入的意愿，包括两大宗教派系以及伊朗人和叙利亚人，各方势力都将影响伊拉克的未来。对此持反对意见的是白宫，一个美国外交官称。“关于伊拉克可以肯定地事实是，我们从来就不想介入太深，但是那里有太多的政治因素”，他说。“如果我们能深入了解，换一种方式开始与伊拉克人合作，也许能对解决问题有实际帮助。”

Beyond Iraq, a redoubled effort to build a viable Palestinian government that can eventually reach a settlement with Israel would undercut another source of anti-Americanism and Islamic radicalism. The U.S. must also attend to growing instability in Pakistan, a key but uncertain ally in its war on terrorism, and may need to send some of the troops coming out of Iraq to Afghanistan to shore up the shaky government in Kabul. 在伊拉克以外，我们要加倍努力地去建立一个能站得住脚跟的巴勒斯坦政府。如果它最终能与以色列达成协议，将会对反美主义和伊斯兰极端主义釜底抽薪。美国也必须处理在巴基斯坦逐渐增长的不稳定因素，后者是反恐战争中的一个关键但又不大可靠的盟友。或许我们还需要从伊拉克调些部队到阿富汗以扶持摇摇欲坠的喀布尔政府．

Can it be done? Michael Mandelbaum, who teaches U.S. foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University, warns that potential gains in any salvage operation are limited, and this one is no different. "The goal here is damage limitation," he says, "not the kind of success envisioned when the operation began." Withdrawal from Iraq will be slow, messy and painful. But however difficult the passage, it is still possible to get to a place that is more secure than where we are now. 这一切都能实现吗？在约翰霍普金斯大学教授美国外交政策的 迈克尔·麦德尔巴布姆警告，任何想充当救世主的行动获得的潜在成果都将大打折扣，这回也不例外。“这次的目标是把损失降到最低，而不是我们在行动开始初期所憧憬的那种成功，”他说。撤军之路将是漫长，混乱和痛苦的。但不论这一关是如何难过，我们仍有可能变得比现在更加安全。

由记者Mark Kukis & Charles Crain/巴格达, Scott Macleod/开罗, 和Brian Bennett, Massimo Calabresi, Jay Newton-Small, Mark Thompson/华盛顿共同报道